Jon-Christopher Bua, Sky News political analyst

With style and grace Barack Obama showed tonight that he has what it takes to win the Democratic nomination and very possibly the Presidency with a double-digit victory in North Carolina.

At 10:39 ET Hillary took the stage not declaring victory but giving a speech whose words seemed more like the beginning of a long goodbye. Although her words implied she would continue to fight on there was defeat in her tone. At 1:15 ET the Indiana race was called for Clinton 51% to 49%.

Her gracious speech may have been the beginning of an effort to heal the Democratic wound. Clinton may have decided it was time to save her reputation for another day.

Despite all the best efforts of the Clinton Campaign and the 24- hour a day Reverend Wright media blitz, Obama rose above the tidal pool of muck and mire to win a decisive victory against the politics of personal destruction.

With a combination of grit and grace, Obama refused to sink into morass and use “old style politics” against his opponent. One thing is now clear Obama has proven he has the mettle to dispatch both Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

Obama declared, “We will end it by telling the truth forcefully, repeatedly, confidently...even if it comes from an imperfect messenger… because the stakes are too high and the challenges are too great”.

Obama put an end to the Clinton Campaign’s argument that he could not win the big battleground states and be a viable candidate in November.

After tonight Obama is only 200 delegates away from the magic number needed for the nomination. He is ahead on all metrics: pledged delegates, total delegates, popular vote and gaining on Superdelegates.

The Obama victory in North Carolina and Clinton’s lack luster performance in a squeaker of a win in Indiana makes it all but impossible for Clinton to present a convincing argument on any basis that could result in the Superdelegates handing her the nomination.

Clinton needed a real “game changing victory” to keep her momentum going so she could continue to raise money. Not even Bill’s North Carolina “Bubba” tour could deliver a victory for her. Today may be her final “meltdown”.

The hour of decision is here for the party leaders, those elusive Superdelegates. There are now more Superdelegates up for grabs than the total of pledged delegates available in the remaining primaries.

As the contest moves from the campaign trail to the “smoke-filled back rooms” both campaigns begin the final push for the Superdelegates to join their team.

If they do not choose to end this battle now they risk allowing John McCain an easy stroll down Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House.

There are of course Superdelegates and then there are “SUPEREDELEGATES”, the real decision makers, the party elders who have been very quite lately.

It may now be time for Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to do their job and knock some sense into the others who have been holding out.

Those politically savvy Superdelegates may already be packing their bags to catch a ride on the Obama Express before it leaves the station.

Comments

[Trish 12 May 2008 13:24:53]

Louise

And I guess you just like the rest of the sheep - enough said?????

[Louise UK 12 May 2008 09:57:48]

Trish - quit embaressing yourself. Much like Hilary, you are losing. ttfn

[Khalid 11 May 2008 18:07:29]

Thank you Rob, (the UK 9 May 2008 13:55:08) for your most valued thoughts and indeed to point out what others may have [Taken for Granted-Sia]!

[Trish 9 May 2008 21:14:40]

Rob, now now, did I hit a nerve - as far as comments here and elsewhere I am entitled to my own opinions just like you. After reading that though I am now a little more enlightened as to what type of person you really are, I guess you have just shown your true colours and you talk about bigitory - yeah rite!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Angry African 9 May 2008 14:31:20]

Another day gone and another day of speculations on who will be the next President. Another round of mud slinging and unfounded rumors. And I am not talking about those running to become the next US President. I am talking about the American people – or at least some of them. I am astounded to read some of the things people have to say about those leaders who are willing to put their hand up in a difficult time in the American history. What is it that makes people dig so deep to find their own worse self in the way they speak about the candidates? It’s like being in South Africa all over again back in 1994 when we had our own first democratic elections. The doomsayers lived large. But the truth is that all three would make fairly good Presidents – and all have their flaws. It won’t be the end of America. Can’t people just focus on what makes America great instead of scrapping the bottom of the barrel of humanity in the way they talk about their potential future leader?

[rob, the UK 9 May 2008 14:27:50]

Trish,

My you do like being condescending don’t you? Perhaps that’s why you like Clinton so much; you have so much in common.

Still at least that’s better than the bigotry and sheer blindness to fact you’ve displayed elsewhere.

You are of course correct when you say it is “out of our hands” – though of course it never was in mine – but the waiting game you refer to it appears is probably not going to be long, even McAuliffe has “apparently” (note the emphasis on apparently, after all it was the Fox network that reported it first :-)) conceded that the race will be over in June, while her team are desperately trying the stem the flood of those delegates pledged to her from switching to Obama.

In contrast ABC is reporting that Obama is today leading Clinton for the first time with 267 superdelegates to Clinton’s 265.

The one last thing Clinton had going for her were the votes in the self-excluded states of Florida and Michigan and as it now seems likely there will be some deal given to them to seat their delegates you could be forgiven for saying that’s the clincher. However as the deal reported isn’t one that puts HRC over the top in votes, that is pretty much the last of her trump cards played and lost.

For the sake of the Democratic party, the US and the world I hope you and the rest of Clinton’s loyal supporters will at least be as magnanimousas your candidate who has already said that she, her husband and team will campaign for Obama should he win the selection process.

Which to all intents and purposes, he has.

Y'all have nice day, y'hear.

[Rob, the UK 9 May 2008 13:55:08]

Khalid,

Leaving aside the phrase “simple minds” – seriously do you really think all Americans are simple minded? – you seems to have at best a vague understanding of Democracy.

Democracy exist to stop a ruling elite, it exists so every adult man and woman who is effected by the dictates of Government has a direct say in how that Government is run and who runs it.

The people you think have gone in to retirement – though there are several who probably should have – do control the decisions of their party but they have an obligation to the people who vote for their party and for them themselves. For them to simply say no, we’re doing thing our way despite what the voters have demanded is not part of the Democratic process, it is in fact quite the reverse a Dictatorship.

Is this the most effective way of choosing a leader, especially one as powerful as the President of the US? Probably not, but it beats every single alternative practiced anywhere else in the world.

[Trish 9 May 2008 09:52:58]

Boys boys, lets just agree to dissagree. I guess its a waiting game now and out of our hands really

[Khalid 8 May 2008 16:06:58]

Sir
Whilst it cannot be argued that the race towards the whitehouse is one of local as well as international interest, the super dooper delegates as you suggest need to tow the party line and start to bring about order within.
As [Simple Minds] have made a clear choice or should I say intention, it does not in the slighest mean that Mr Obama is the right man to lead the country nor does it mean that Mrs Clinton is not the right lady.
Naturally those who have gone into retirement know the value of their voice and if they do not speak up now and before the next round of voter apathy, they would have given the house to none other than [The American]. So cast your votes now please!

[Rob, the UK 8 May 2008 11:23:29]

Okay Trish, let’s test that assumption of yours against today’s news and facts.

Obama has picked up 4 new super delegates Clinton 2, this leaves Obama around 13 Super Delegates behind Hilary with 215 yet undecided.

Obama has taken Democratic father-figure George McGovern away from Clinton, to endorsing Obama , which is what; at least 9 Super Delegates who have switched from Clinton to Obama, and 0 the other way around?

Despite losing one of the contests, Obama picked up 97 delegates compared to Clintons 86 (4 still to be seated at this time which even if they go to Clinton still puts Obama ahead) leaving him short by 178.5 delegates (No, I don’t know how you get half a delegate either) with 217 left to go over all, but leaving Clinton needing 329.

Now Clinton is arguing on 2 fronts to combat this negative math:

1) She’s saying that Florida and Michigan should be seated – despite breaking their own rules and despite the fact that voters didn’t come out in large number because they knew it wouldn’t count and despite the fact Obama wasn’t even on one of the ballots!

2) She’s arguing that Super delegates should support her because she’s more electable – something the polls both agree and disagree on, depending on which day it’s being taken and who is asked.

On point 1, let’s leave aside the smell of desperation this stinks of and ask ourselves: do you really think the Democratic party is really going to turn round and say that the person with more delegates, more of the popular vote (Obama got 200,000 of the popular vote on Tuesday alone) has won more actual states and who has bought the Democrat core black voters out in huge numbers . . . should now lose because it’s okay to break the rules if you’re a white woman?

Now I can hear you saying that that is – mainly – a race issue and shouldn’t be part of the process, but you might as well say that its gender that is getting Clinton the vote of women. Now I’m not certain which Americans find the worst evil, racism or sexism (personally I find most ‘isms’ not worth bothering with at all), but the fact remains that if the Democratic leaders don’t nominate Obama they’re going to alienate every democrat black voter motivated to get out so far – a body of people that haven’t really managed to motivate in years – not to mention the majority of States who didn’t vote for Clinton, but if they obey their own rules and don’t nominate Clinton, do you think democrat women aren’t going to vote for Obama, when you’ve got McCain who is openly going more right-wing in a effort to gather the GOP faithful and will again undermine women’s rights just as Bush has done?

On point 2, Clinton is an instantly polarising person – you either love or hate her. Obama doesn’t carry that sort of problem – admittedly in large part because until a year ago nobody had even heard of him – but less democrats will vote against him then they will against Clinton.

So what about democrats? Well Obama has proven to be astoundingly resilient against attacks by both the media and Clinton’s own team and can take McCain to task about the war (which Clinton will have problems with after supporting it), tax-breaks for the rich (which Clinton will have problems with if she isn’t to alienate her own backers), economic policy (which any high school graduate should be able to do) health care (which both Clinton and Obama should be able to do) and hit him with George Bush’s legacy as well . . . so who really is the most electable?

No, sorry Trish, but as a purely objective observer – being from the UK but with many friends in the US – Clinton has already lost and is just a distraction from the real fight for the Presidency; she can still have influence – positive and negative - on the outcome of that contest but she cannot possibly be one of the contenders, it simply doesn’t add up, as much as you might want it want it to.

[John B Sheffield 7 May 2008 18:40:00]

It is so disappointing when Trish and other most pro-Hillary supporters (whose opinions and loyalty I respect) behave as they are. It is not personal, it is just Life, people make choices and there are winners and runners up, but bringing race into it is not needed and anyway voters react completely different when it become straight race between Barack Obama and McCain. Voters want Change and something fresh after 8 years if Bush.

I just Hope Hillary will do what is right for the Party quickly, this can't be dragged on more than a day or two.

Rhetoric like Harold Wolfson this afternoon in The Clinton Conference Call does not help, it makes them look deluded and so out of touch.

It is going to be disappointing if it takes Hillary to be forced from the race, then she will look a bitter old lady.

[Trish 7 May 2008 15:32:02]

No Rob I dont think so, it will be the likes of you that will be eating your words if Obama does come in, I guess then it will be too late. Its the gullable lot who are trying to be politically correct - time to think abit will ya. Even if he does win the democratic race he stands no chance against McCain. What a sad day that will be when the true person for the job is HRC

[Rob, the UK 7 May 2008 13:51:45]

Sorry Trish have you not being paying attention? You might as well say that those states that are predominately white voted for Clinton - it's a nonsense statement and has nothing to do with the real issues, apart from showing how race is a bigger issue for white Democrats than they would like you to believe.

There are two things that do stand out in this contest. One is that Obama has taken all of the character attacks on him and still ran a positive campaign that caught the imagination of the world and America.

He hasn't needed to lie about his associations or personal history - like 'miss-speaking' about being under sniper fire (how can you not remember NOT being shot at?) - he hasn't tried to manipulate the democratic process to include a ballot with only his name on, he hasn't tried to disparage his opponent because of her gender or race ('America's just not ready' Is that right Hills? you know it sure looks ready to me!) He hasn't tried to claim his spouse's experience as his own (which given Bill's history I suspect makes the Whitehouse interns breath a sigh of relief) and he has raised the vast, vast majority of the money to fuel his campain from individual Americans not 'Special Interest Groups' like Clinton, which despite his erstewhile pastor - a man that the Clintons have feted many times - being an idiot of amazing proportions still gives him an honesty and connection to the average American that Hillary can not match.

The second thing is that both candidates have raised voter numbers in amounts that the Republicans can only dream of. When Obama wins this contest - as all the numbers show he will - even half of Hillary's racist supporters don't vote for him - and that's a big estimate - he'll still have more support than McCain for the Presidency itself.

Look out world, you're about to get your first black American President!

[Sharon-RSA 7 May 2008 13:22:20]

Congrats to Obama. He is the person for the job.Clinton has alot of baggage to carry and people are starting to see the light. You Superdelegates WAKE UP and smell the coffee. OBAMA IS YOUR MAN.

[John B Sheffield 7 May 2008 12:47:57]

You are quite correct
Jon-Christopher, Hillary after last night, for once must now do what is right for The Democratic Party, she had the opportunity even before last night to withdraw and she would have earned some respect.

Now it is up to the Elders of The DNC to call on Hillary to ask her to do the right thing and also encourage Superdelegates to make a decision now before damage is done to the party.

There can be no real comparison in what voters may do in primaries, when they have a stark choice between more of Bush Year with McCain or someone in Senator Barack Obama who will even more energise voters when he comes face to face with McCain, looking old and slow.

My only serious concern is how as I have said since March, it will need Hillary to be dragged, screaming and screeching from the race and as is shown her supporters will then make veil threats to support McCain, if so shame on them both, I just Hope the Party can still UNITE this is when it needs Leadership! - come on Howard Dean!!

[Mary Italy 7 May 2008 11:57:29]

Obama doesn't only win in predominantly black states - he won in Iowa too. His campaign has been aimed at rational human beings (white and black)who desperately want a change after the disastrous 8 years in the White House and maybe even longer. Although I am white, female and middle class, I would choose Obama over Clinton because he is the better candidate, and the fact that he is winning proves others think the same way.

[Trish 7 May 2008 08:43:10]

Its so apt that Obama only wins in the predominatly black states - he doesn't stand a chance in the white middle class states. It also speaks volumes that he never stood a chance in the big states like NY, Penn, Florida and California??? - says it all for me really - you go HILLARY