By Jon-Christopher Bua, Sky News political analyst

As Lyndon Johnson signed The Civil Rights Act back in 1964, he leaned over to one of his aides and said: "There goes the South."

As Hillary Clinton chose to threaten to take her battle to the Convention floor in Denver she might as well have said: "There goes the Democratic Party."

The Democratic National Committee ("DNC") Rules and By-Laws Committee has passed two compromise resolutions in an attempt address the problems with the primary votes in Florida and Michigan created by that very same Committee.

Before the primaries began, the DNC and all of the candidates, including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, agreed to abide by the rules which stripped Florida and Michigan of all their delegates because they scheduled their primary contests too early in violation of those rules.

This decision said no delegates would be awarded to either state and these contests would not count in the selection of the Democratic nominee.

Both Clinton and Obama agreed to abide by this ruling. They both made public statements acknowledging that fact and neither complained about this ruling at the time.

At their meeting the DNC approved two compromise measures that reversed their earlier decision.

They seated all of the delegates, allowing them all to attend the Convention but giving them only a half vote. This changes the magic number needed to win 2,118.

The truly contentious part of the decision was the allocation of the delegates in these two states. In two states where no campaigning was allowed Clinton, who was better known, clearly had a natural advantage.

Without a real campaign the contests held in Florida and Michigan are not a true reflection of what might have occurred since many voters did not have the benefit of hearing the message from the campaigns and may have stayed home believing the Democratic Party would not count these results.

Florida was clearly the easier case to resolve where there was a primary with both candidates on the ballot. The allocation method the committee selected for Florida was based on the popular vote outcome.

In Michigan, Clinton was the only major candidate who left her name on the ballot. Obama and all of the other major candidates took theirs off.

The party's decision on the Michigan allocation may leave it open to attack at the Credentials Committee, which occurs one week before the Convention.

The party and this committee may come to regret these decisions that they hoped would bring unity.

Instead of simply abiding by their original decision - which was an option at Saturday's meeting - they chose to try to please all constituencies and may have truly made party divisions worse.

It also seemed clear that this may be the beginning of a Clinton strategy to overturn the results in over 50 primaries and caucuses where she did not win the number of delegates necessary to get the nomination.

When her "cake walk" to the nomination failed on February 5, Clinton was forced to begin to face reality.

She attempted to retool her campaign by bringing in her longtime ally, dogged political infighter and former Bill Clinton White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Harold Ickes, to try to right her sinking ship.

It was clearly too little too late.

With virtually no way to win "fair and square" on the numbers that count, Team Clinton has resulted to legal tactics reminiscent of the "Bush vs Gore" battle.

One of the most stunning moments of the meeting came during the discussions of the primary in Michigan where Barack Obama's name was not on the ballot.

Clinton's legal team argued with a straight face that the Michigan allocation should include no delegates for Obama.

Ickes said "Mrs Clinton has instructed me to reserve her rights to take this to the Credentials Committee."

With those fighting words, Clinton has made it clear she believes the nomination should be hers at all costs and she is willing to do anything to win including a floor fight at the Convention in Denver. 

The ever colourful Ickes used the word "chutzpah", substituting it for another more colourful term that I know both former DNC Chair Don Fowler and Committee Co-Chair and FDR grandson Jimmy Roosevelt have heard many times before.

Team Clinton should certainly know about "chutzpah" since it will take lots of it to get delegates who support Barack Obama to abandon their commitment.

If they proceed with this battle, Clinton may fracture the fragile an exhausted Democratic Party coalition in a way that rivals the fissure created by Lyndon Johnson.

Clinton must now decide whether she is willing to risk being remembered as the person who divided the Democratic Party and possibility caused another Democratic presidential loss in a year when victory should have been all but certain.

It may be the time for the Democratic heavy hitters - Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Al Gore - to join in a chorus of those famous Jule Styne lyrics: "The party's over...It's time to call it a day, and put and end to this battle before it is too late".

Or maybe it's just the right time for Hillary to sit back and watch McCain reap the rewards of the damage she has done while preparing for another run for The White House in 2012.

Comments

[Andy 12 Jun 2008 15:50:38]

Reena

Time will tell my friend - I wait with bated breath. How peceptive of you too state that it affects the rest of the world - how right you are!

Adios to you too!

[Reena 12 Jun 2008 15:34:14]

Andy, FYI I have researched my candidate's kenyan & muslim roots, read his biographies and myself lived in Kenya, Indonisia & USA among many other countries to know where he is coming from. Just like you I was impressed by your canditate & followed her hubby's 'reign' but its past and the world has changed now. Met Bill in Scotland & can be very charming but he's lost it now. You follow whatever your heart says & don't be too assumptive of someone else's knowledge. It takes wider knowledge & courage to change and get out of our fear/comfort zones. This election is not only about America but affects the world world. Think! Good-bye

[Andy 12 Jun 2008 10:04:02]

Reena

No fear Reena, just common sence. Something which you appear not to have, you seem to be caught up in the whirl wind of "yes we can". Have you even bothered to go into the background of your "candidate" - according to you blog somehow I doubt it. Maybe you need to get some facts on the subject before you care to voice your opinion so forcefully eh? I guess time will tell Reena, but somehow I feel most free thinking American will put 2 and 2 together as we are not living in an ideal world Reena even though it would be nice.

[Reena 12 Jun 2008 01:00:53]

Andy,
I see where your Fear comes from. In a name! Reeks of HRC’s ‘fear’ tactics to get into power, so who is the gullible sheep? You talk of equality but can’t even see the obvious division she has created within her own party & America by these prejudicial undertones. This very attitude has brought great disrepute and distrust in the World communities for Americans. I am an objective English observer (proud to be) looking at the strongest candidate who has the right values, human understanding and the drive to make it a better world irrespective of class, gender, race, age etc. Clintons had their chance and blew it. Yes, I agree their personal life is none of our concern but it tells a lot about the person and their values. Like Bill, HRC herself, has been caught telling lies publicly a number of times in this campaign. So how many other lies are being told behind the scenes to gain supporters like you? HRC even implied that Obama would be on the ‘dream ticket’ to gain votes. Now having lost, she still harbours the wish to be his running mate. How desperate!
About using grey matter…… Well! Who is the one afraid of a person’s Name! No wonder it’s the intelligent, discerning visionary people backing Obama! Still mate, no personal offence. The world is as you perceive it to be. Some people live in their small safe cocoons & others travel wide and far to mix, aid and gain knowledge about all human communities on earth, thus have seen and experienced the trials & tribulations of humans irrespective of class, race, culture, gender, origin etc. But even common sense would tell someone that there are millions of men called Hussein, spelled in dozens of ways and none are the same as other.

[Andy 10 Jun 2008 10:56:44]

Reena UK

Thats where you are wrong my friend. Its the gullable types like yourself who get sucked into the Obama "yes we can". Wait till he gets in you will rue the day. I just have to say his full name Barack HUSEIN Obama. Can't you wake up and smell the roses or are you all like little sheep. HRC would have made a fine President, she stands for equality need I say more. As for her husband he will go down as one of the finest US presidents to date. Incase you forgot when he was President America had a sound economy and in fact it was flourishing - so what you got against Bill is beyond me, try looking past his personal life it had nothing to do with you or anyone else, it never affected the country - so time to grow up and use a little grey matter Reena!!!!

[Reena from UK 10 Jun 2008 00:55:34]

Andy,
Are you Hilary's relative? Putting her above what is good for the Democrates & the Americans? Good speech by Hilary? That's all she is good at-talk, talk talk. With all her & Bill's huge pot of political influence, money, rich 'friends' and 'tell what people want to hear' speeches she still lost. How can someone who started with a huge pot of funds, end with a deficit, then run the US economy? How can someone who claims she didn't know of her husband's shenanigans, know what goes on under her roof let alone the country. So many of her staff left her, not without reason.She would never take responsibility for her own failures & shortcomings. If her supporters vote for McCain, they are not Democrates- just
sore losers afraid of change or Hilary's puppets causing more 'mischief'. Now, so desperate to gain power at any cost, Hilary is ready to be considered as VP, under the pretext that democrates would lose without her on the ticket. How narcisistic! Still trying to divide the party & the country. Wake up Andy- you are being psychologically manipulated to create more 'fear' and 'threats' (Choose me or my followers will vote for McCain). "Divide & Rule" is her motto- at any cost to the Democrates and Americans.
Andy- try thinking out of the 'box' for yourself, face your own fears & be objective. Its obvious to us in UK, as to what's going on. Clintons cannot be trusted! Bet they are still 'plotting' a way in.
Good Luck

[Andy 9 Jun 2008 10:53:25]

Heres hoping all 18 Million Hillary supporters now vote JOHN McCAIN, and see Obama for who and what he really is!!!!!

Hillary your speech was fantastic, the democrats will rue the day you never got in.

[Frank, Cork 8 Jun 2008 09:12:36]

The fact that Clinton lost to Obama despite having so much infrastructure behind her and despite appealing to feminist factions tells us that Obama was in fact a much stronger candidate.
He should certainly not choose her as VP. She has clearly demonstrated that she is quite willing to sink the ship rather than have to play second fiddle to the captain.

[Reena from UK 8 Jun 2008 02:54:22]

Congrats Obama! Please don't let party pressures or anyone/anything force you into choosing Hilary as the running mate. If you can win over her, you certainly can against McCain. Hilary's self interests and the ambition to create a Clinton dynasty, will not only hamper the potential change the world is looking to America to make in World politics & World Peace but undermine your own huge potential and inner strength. It's heartening to see a world politician who believes in a United world through Dialogue, not Domination; through Communication not Confrontation. Those 'drunk' on power & personal gain cannot see that the world needs more gentle, genuine, caring world leaders valuing all human life and rights. AMERICA -choose well in November. The young and the intelligent of USA have seen the 'light'. Will the white middle class & women supporting Clinton be able to look beyond their own fears of change or was the fear induced by Clinton themselves? I like to think that the American middle class are more intelligent than Hilary credits them for. May all Americans unite & support Obama for president. Unity & Peace starts at home. Show us in Europe & rest of the world that you value all humans & all cultures. That the undertone of racism, sexism and class that Hilary so used to divide the democrats is not how you view the rest of the world by.
OBAMA- the world is ready for the paradigm shift towards Good - GO for it with all your heart.Oprah's philosophy supporter from UK.

[frank,dublin. 7 Jun 2008 19:36:07]

How biased are you John?
You seem to be very,very anti-Clinton.

[7 Jun 2008 16:41:49]

Hılary makes me sıck.. and always has. As for her husband ... both are off the wall wıth theır lıes and self seekıng.

[7 Jun 2008 09:26:36]

I really wait for your next comment ...My first impression is that there now is a fantastic opportunity for the dream - team to try and make the world better ;
In France we say "la tête et les jambes "Monsieur B and Madame C....AHH B C this sounds good !
Pierre

[N. ODJE 4 Jun 2008 14:30:07]

Hilary's determination to continue her fight exposes her true intention of going into politics in the first place.She is out for personal victory and does not have the interest of the party at heart. Her selfishness and large ego have blinded her from seeing the bigger picture.She ran under the banner of the party and the party should be above any person (including ex-white house candidates who think that they have a divine right to govern). Hilary's attitude has corroded some of the good impressions associated with the selfless nature of her husband,Bill. I am not a sexist but her attitude sends a very poor hint about women's understanding of politics although I do not want to generalise.At one stage in the campaign Hilary actually cried when the tide turned against her.Now we know why she cried.It was never for the interest of the people.It was all about personal power and position.
N.ODJE

[sally bolton england 4 Jun 2008 07:35:38]

clinton gives women a bad name.
she should be urging her supporters to back obama and offer sincere congratulations. instead she displays the qualities of a woman scorned.

[Pierre Gruneberg France 4 Jun 2008 06:50:12]

Iregularly read on my tiny but efficient baby blackberry (alas I cannot receive Sky at home )...the excellent articles of Jon Bua ...They give me a fascinating resume of the complicated rules(for a. Foreigner ) of the American elections !these elections make me think of the waves of the sea!! Ups an down unpredictable !Yet we have no power on the sea fire tornadoes eathquakes!
Yet we Europeans and the rest of the world hope that America this great country full of great people both Democrats and Republicans (is there really a difference ?)will find the right candidate to make the world a better world!

[Theuns Botha, Pretoria, South Africa 3 Jun 2008 13:47:46]

Why is the world press so anti-clinton, even the UK news services seems extremely biased? Bill Clinton was an excellent US President etc...

[Bob, UK 2 Jun 2008 16:34:24]

The one thing you can guarentee with the Clintons is that they care more for themselves than either their party or country - when Obama passes the finishing line this Tuesday, do you really think she is going to just stop and go back to the Senate?

I see three scenarios, first, she gets the VP position handed to her on a plate, which would please only her; second, she carries on legal challenges and bad maths to undermine the Dems right up to the last minute; or three she's goes on as an Independant.

Make no mistake, both Clinton and Obama could easily beat McCain, with even the GOP having their doubts about him, but Clinton running as an Independant or carrying on her fatally wounded arguments until the last breath would split the DEM vote so effectively that McCain would sail the election.

[Barbara, The Netherlands 2 Jun 2008 09:24:37]

Clinton is just plain stubborn and should have quit weeks ago. I think she WILL end up doing unreparable damage to the democratic party.

[vincent 2 Jun 2008 01:48:01]

I cannot decide if you hate women hillary / the Clintons or the Americans that have voted for Hillary . maybe you hate all of them ... this is a biased inflammotry article passing for commentary , in America you can fight your fight all the way to the convention floor., thta is why we call it Democracy you bua there goes the democratic party , derogatory terms of your choice , show hillary clinton the respect she deserves for being a candidate. I used to think it was tough being a black in America now I know it is much tougher being a woman, millions of Americans have voted for Hillary ask them if the party is over , her and Barak are close in votes so hang it up

[N in NY 1 Jun 2008 22:53:26]

Watching the Rules and By-Laws Committee yesterday was yet another disappointment in my hopes of a Democratic Party taking back the 2008 presidential election. The line I hear in my circles is that the Democrats seem to have an ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – yesterday’s committee meeting is the latest exhibit.

There are so many to blame and be angry at it; it is hard to list them all. But especially the legislators of both Florida and Michigan who pushed their agenda knowing that there would be bad consequences (and granted, this wasn’t completely the fault of Democrats). It is difficult to imagine creating a scenario which would demonstrate a greater deal of stupidity and incompetence that culminated in the situation faced by the committee yesterday.

Can someone please find me a competent party, full of professionals, who reflect the moderate tendencies of most Americans? It certainly isn’t the Democrats – nor the Republicans.

[Marian London 1 Jun 2008 22:18:31]

You are quite right in your assessment of what the Clintons intend to do - cause as much damage to the democratic party and nation by dividing the party and making sure that Obama does not win in Nov. Hillary's motto is if not me no one else. People keep saying that she has the interest of the party but truly and really it is more about their personal interest more than that of the party and nation. She puts herself first all the time and that is very selfish.

[Rob Fawcett, London 1 Jun 2008 22:04:11]

I was surprised the Michigan decision was 69-59 delegates rather than 73-55 in favour of Senator Clinton. 73 was the allocation which the raw proportion of primary votes would have allocated to Clinton. My surprise was on the basis that those four deducted delegates could become a totem for complaints of bias and disenfranchisement to a degree which might outweigh their value to Obama in the overall delegate count (Ickes milked the decision in this way). Allowing those further four Clintion delegates would have offered an additional claim upon magnanimity for Obama.

There has been much speculation of a contest-deciding tranche of superdelegates announcing for Obama. Does holding out for 69-59 imply that the Obama camp expects its initial passing of the winning post to be by a very small margin?

[Artur de Freitas - Johannesburg, South Africa 1 Jun 2008 20:49:51]

Clinton is on a ego-trip where she comes first and the party second. The USA needs a president that puts the country first and the party second. I lost my respect for the lady.

[Bill Nolin, Nples, Florida, USA 1 Jun 2008 15:42:24]

These clowns want to actually run a country when they cannot even run their own political party. The Democrat party selection process was flawed from the start. After enduring months of campaigning and 34 million votes cast, it comes down to unelected (as delegates) party hacks to decide. The Democrat Party is not very democratic.

[John B Sheffield 1 Jun 2008 14:17:14]

Watching yesterday's proceedings was like being at a "Footie Match" the cheering and shouting and this was even more disgraceful when it came from members of the Rules and Bye-Laws Committee themselves, I thought they where there to decide what is right for The Party not any one candidate.

Harold Ickes behavior was shameful from the start it was plain for all to see he would only accept one ruling, this being against what he accepted previously, but then at that time he did not think it would count?

The way Ickes reacted to many speakers was disgusting and showed no respect that we all have opinions. Harold Ickes was only ever going to as I said accept one ruling and when that was not agreed to to make the possible legal Threat at the end was so typical, it was not what was best for The Party just who he represented, that is the only rules he plays by.

The Democratic Party needs to UNITE to end with the statement from Harold Ickes yesterday was not the best start, I trust Harold will reflect and watch his full performance and hopefully some trusted colleagues and friends will speak to him, politics like that take us way back, no wonder Voters want Change!

The Democratic Party can still UNITE people are sick and tired of the Bush years and once the campaign proper starts they will see a BIG difference and choice between the old politics of the past and Senator Barack Obama and change. I trust all the most loyal supporters of Hillary will in the end think carefully, but Hillary has to lead now more than ever, if she fluffs this last Performance she is completely finished in Politics, as she will never be forgiven. For your own sake Hillary and Our Country and Party show now that you can be gracious.

[Khalid 1 Jun 2008 14:09:11]

Sir
As worlwide politics has one thing in common thus far as to provide unbeleivable emerging theories at the best of times, no doubt the [Bully Boy] stance being circulated provides such matters of contrast.
On the one hand, looking thus far back as the Bush-Gore debacle, then who would argue the fact that legislative channels are available to all in the event democracy moves otherwise.
Then again, if this right is not utilised the label will no doubt be one whereby [Shed Seven] didnt have the pace to go all the way.
What I do find ironic, despite earlier such agreements is the fact that having removed your name from the contenst you are still able to get a share of the vote. If democracy is ripe, then by all rights, only the person whose name remains must benefit from all such votes cast, whether or not such votes were cast early. Cant deny the fact it just gets better can you?

[John - UK 1 Jun 2008 11:23:33]

Unfortunately from this side of the pond, Hilary Clinton has not only done damage to the Democratic Party, but to the standing of the Us on democracy itself. True democracy is the voting of the people for those that will represent them. All this underhand behaviour, legal threats and manipulation reflects badly on the US as a whole.